This work package consists of four Tasks, which develop a set of nested tools and investigations.
The tasks are:
The links among T 3.1, 3.2, and 3.3 require the development and implementation of methodologies that overcome the limitations of existing studies. In particular, dynamic downscaling techniques will be combined with statistical/stochastic methods to obtain the maximum benefit of both methodologies. Simulations run at the local scales will allow preserving the often important small scale variability into larger scale models by developing appropriate techniques to scale-up from the point to the basin scale. The overall nested character of the modelling concept of WP2 will thus allow the generation of catchment scale scenarios by means of distributed hydrological models, which are fed by downscaled space-time scenarios, and at the same time resolve the small scale variability of processes using detailed models that either are nested within the raster of the hydrological model itself or supply an external input. The hydrological model and small scale detailed models will be used to generate the scenarios, which form the basis for the analyses of WP43. Figures 1 and 2.2 summarize the link among the different subtasks and the flow of information with the other WPs.
WP2 Description of work
Task 2.1: Model simulated climate baselines
MPI Hamburg [S. Kotlarski, D. Jacob]
This task of WP2 will aim at setting up and managing a project data base containing climate model results carried out within the ACQWA project. Use will be made of the existing infrastructure at the World Data Center for Climate (WDCC). There is a wealth of model-generated climate data that is available at horizontal scales ranging from 25-50 km. For example, the data from the EU-FP6 “ENSEMBLES” project is regularly updating its climate data base with results from the ensembles GCM and RCM simulations. The ACQWA data base will provide links to these already existing data sources. Specific climate scenarios focusing on the near and mid-term future (in practice until 2050) carried out within the present study will be stored in the data base and shared within the consortium for the project time and to the broad scientific community at the end of it. The data will be available in a user-friendly manner, accessible through the Internet.
Task 2.2: Past and current climatic baselines
University of Bern, Switzerland [J. Luterbacher]
The investigations proposed in Task 2.2 will provide the necessary information for the validation of the modelling activities planned in WP3 and WP4 with respect to recent past and current climate.
Local to regional climate anomalies at different time scales (daily-monthly) are to a large extent determined by the state of the atmospheric circulation. Thus, advective (and convective) processes exerted by the atmospheric circulation are a crucial factor controlling local to regional changes of precipitation and temperature. The large-scale interrelation between the circulation and local to regional climate arises because they are both associated with change in the quasi-stationary planetary waves and other factors, including the role of advection given by the mean flow and the planetary waves. Within this Task synoptic studies will be performed relating daily and monthly large scale pressure (including sea-level pressure – SLP - and geopotential height) for the last approximately 60 years to regional climate (precipitation, temperature, etc.) of the Alpine area, with particular emphasis on the Rhone and Po valleys. These types of synoptic analyses will also be applied to the other case-studies located in the Aconcagua and Kyrgyzstan regions.
In addition, this Task will also document and investigate the current space-time distribution and diagnosis of trends/variability of extreme events (e.g., floods, drought, heat waves, etc.) at different time and space scales for the regions selected will also. Methods will be developed and applied to classify circulation patterns at the daily to monthly scale and statistical analyses to relate sea level pressure to extremes in current climate. These results will be used to validate the specific regional climate scenarios generated for the project in WP3, Task 3.1. Changes identified in regional climates will also be investigated to detect whether the observed climate evolution is due to internal climate variability or to external forcing combining natural and anthropogenic sources of variability.
Task 2.3: Remote-sensing data
Laboratoire EDYTEM, CNRS, France [J.-P. Dedieu]
Because the proposal concentrates on modelling the response of snow and ice dominated mountain regions, a specific Task is foreseen to generate remote sensing optical products, which will be used for validation of both climatic and hydrological models, used in Task 3.1 and 3.2 respectively, with respect to the spatiotemporal evolution of snow cover and the surface characteristics (e.g. the snow grain size) of the snowpack in the present climate at the regional, basin and local scales. Such validation is necessary to verify that both the climate and the hydrological models can capture the variability observed, and, particularly, that which has characterized extreme years with rapidly evolving snow cover.
Accordingly, enhanced snow cover products will be produced from daily large scale image, i.e. 500m to 250m MODIS/TERRA database, and validated to local scale representative case using monthly ASTER vs SPOT HRVIR data (respectively 15m and 10m). Specific MODIS products such as the surface reflectance (MOD09, Bands 1-7, 500 m), the cloud mask (MOD35), the geometry (MODMGGAD) will be used, jointly with the DISORT Snow Spectral Library (Bands 1-7) and the relevant Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of the investigated areas.
Task 2.4: Socio-economic drivers of change
HEID, Geneva, Switzerland [U. Luterbacher]
Numerous socially-generated processes interact with climate and are therefore essential to our understanding of future conditions. Water availability and use will be affected not only by changes in the climate but also by differential evolution of economic sectors (agriculture, energy, tourism, etc) trade and financial flows, the opening of energy markets and greater movement of the labor force and people in general. These trends will impinge on mountain regions especially since urban concentrations will increase and, if one follows the trends in the Alps, mountain areas will become increasingly urbanized. Using the model Climsocwater (ref) and the system SPARE (Luterbacher 1987, Luterbacher and Wiegandt 1995), these driving forces will be formally specified in order to track their own evolution and potential impact on climate and hydrological processes but, more important, to define points of contact where climatic and social processes interact. Subsequently, outputs from the climate scenarios deriving from Task 2.1 and hydrological outputs from Task 3.2 will be taken into account to allow for the construction of an integrated model which includes the representation of socio-economic drivers such as land use changes, energy demand, agricultural policies, financial and trade liberalization particularly for energy markets, population movements and concentration of people in urban areas, and urbanization of mountain areas. In particular the WP will include:
1. A socio-economic model that includes industrial and rural sectors, demography, energy, finance, trade and government expenses and revenues and in addition is open to climate change and hydrological inputs. It incorporates a water sector influencing both rural and industrialized sectors and which will determine:
2. A supply and demand sector for land which depends upon its value as an asset used for either agriculture, forestry, dwelling, or industry. Same remark for WP as above.
This model, will in the course of the project incorporate the results of the focused Work Packages in order to be used to carry out cost benefit analyses and risk assessments. Risk assessments will benefit from inputs from hydrological and climate models. Expected loss and damage as well as benefits will be undertaken. Risk assessments will be done in close coordination with the Columbia University team (Graciela Chichilnisky and Peter Eisenberger), evaluate policy responses and adaptation in a second phase included in Task 4.3.
Data Issues: By now a substantial data base exists for the issues evoked above in the World Bank Develoment indicators, an in depth compendium of socio-economic indicators for each country and region of the world. Contacts with relevant local institutions such as the Instituto Torcuato de Tella in Buenos Aires and the Kyrgyz Academy of Science Institute for Water and Hydropower will bring I additional data bases for regional questions.
Task 2.5: ACQWA Data Warehouse
UNEP/DEWA GRID-Europe [B. Chatenoux]; University of Geneva [A. Lehmann]
The complexity inherent to the chain of processes involved from climatic, to cryospheric and hydrologic models, all of them impacting on different compartments of human and natural systems, all this through different scenarios and across several regions, as described in the other project WPs, justifies the definition of a well organized data warehouse for the ACQWA project. Based on the long experience in managing data and metadata through the Internet from many international programs, developed by GRID-Europe as part of the Division of Early Warnings of UNEP, the first task of the ACQWA Data Warehouse (ACQWA-DW) will be to install a Spatial Direct server to:
The second main task is to build an Internet GIS MapServer (ACQWA IMS), in order to:
T2.5 will interact with all of the other work packages. It will provide a service, first, in defining the structure of the outputs of WP2 (Climatic and socio-economic drivers of change) by matching the input needs of the models predicting changes in water quality and quantity (WP3) at the basin and local/point scales. Outputs from WP3 will also match the needs of the work package on impacts (WP4) through the ACQWA-DW. It will finally provide outputs from all work packages for Education and Outreach (WP5).
The WP will provide a quantitative description of the primary (or direct) driver, climate change (CC), and of the indirect (or secondary) driver, the socio-economic factors.
1) the CC driver will be described by means of recent climatic scenarios for validation of models and large and regional scale scenarios respectively from GCMs and RCMs simulations according to selected IPCC emission scenarios;
2) validation of spatial and temporal extent of snow cover at global to local scale computed by spatially explicit models under different climate scenarios;
3) validation of timing and amount of runoff generated from snow pack at a fine temporal scale estimated under different climate scenarios;
4) the socio-economic factors will be quantified by means of scenarios of socioeconomic developments, such as drivers of land use changes, drivers of energy demand, changes in agricultural policies, etc.
WP1 Description of work
The coordination of the project will be carried out by the University of Geneva and will conform to the rules and obligations imposed by the European Commission for all FP7 Large-Scale Integrated Projects.
Task 1.1: Kick-off meeting
A first scoping meeting will be organized at the start of the project with all partners and the scientists who will work on the project.
Task 1.2: General Assembly meetings
General assembly meetings will be held once a year and will be aimed at an overview of progress in research in the preceding year, and with a view at preparing the annual reporting.
Task 1.3: Management Board meetings
The ACQWA Management Board will meet twice a year. One of the meetings will coincide with the annual General Assemblies.
Task 1.4: Reporting
Reporting will take place according to the guidelines as stipulated by the Commission. A short, summary-type report will be provided each 6 months, and the full annual report will intervene at the end of each year of activity.
Coordination and administration of ACQWA project.